Thursday, September 11, 2008

Study agenda Thursday 9/11 five-hour timeblock

  • Identify alternate timeframes I want to reference
    • identify a few indicators I would like to take readings from
    • add this data-collection to the survey

    Due to the seemingly infinite complexities that are introduced when analyzing alternate timeframes (for same trade entry or exit), I've decided to keep it simple for now by studying only the M15. Once a strategy is developed, I may go back and followup on those specific entry/exits with alternate-timeframe studies. That seems to make better sense (use as a refinement to an already existing strategy).

  • Figure out if/how I could possibly make use of the new IBFX Power Stats tool
    I think this is a good resource to look at after the trading strategy is developed. This dynamically updated information can answer such questions as "Which pair moves the most during the time window I am trading?" and "Which days of the week does my pair typically move the most?" and "Which hours does my pair typically make its biggest moves?"

  • Resolve the issue of how to link all entries/exits to as a group in database
    In my mind, I cannot envision any way around using a linking ID#. Each trade will have one survey (data record) for the entry, and then potentially one survey (data record) for each target indicator that uses a different exit bar. Some target exits could overlap future entry bars. Also, since the target records record the pip gain, we will need to know which entry that is referring back to. I will plan to use a manual link ID# on the paper survey, and later automate this when I build the electronic data-entry form.

  • Write up step-by-step testing procedure
    1. Look for any visual movements of significance (probably 30+ pips). These can be either sprinter or marathoner moves, but there should be a visible catalyst/trigger bar that starts the move.
    2. Identify the ideal entry bar. (Add colored vertical marker to chart)
      • Record price at the open for this bar.
      • Complete all survey questions for the trade entry.

    3. Identify one or more ideal target/exit bars. (Add colored vertical markers to chart)
      • Record price as worst for this bar, or open of next bar.
      • Complete all survey questions for the trade exit.

    4. During target bar analysis, also look for triggers among indicators that may appear slightly before or after the current exit bar. If this situation exists, an additional survey should be completed with analysis of this single indicator. (This allows me to capture and track highly-definitive indications that might otherwise be overlooked.)

  • Prep EURUSD data for FT testing
    Looks like IBFX will only provide 1min bars going back about a month from the server. I will investigate alternate data sources at some point, but prefer to start with IBFX data. May need to broaden testing to other pairs if 1 month of data does not produce a sufficient number of trades for analysis.

  • Begin the study; take note of revisions needed
    The study has been officially started and I will plan to take one trade and do a comprehensive review in this blog to demonstrate proper usage of the survey form.

  • Begin initial work on a new Mind Movie to specifically target this strategy development (move to next agenda)
  • Watch Wall Street Warriors season 2 episode 3