Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Indicator research

The following are technical indicators I'm researching as possible candidates for my survey. I'm looking for a balance of leading and lagging indicators. During the survey period, I will load up the chart with as many indicators as reasonably possible. This will enable me to gather the maximum amount of data possible during the study. When the data is compiled and developed into an actual trading strategy, I expect to narrow the indicators to a small handful at most.

The requirements for the indicators I've chosen as possible candidates are:
  • it "makes sense" to me and is not overly complex
  • it "plays nice" with other indicators
  • it gives at least some objective indications
  • it is available in both Forex Tester and MetaTrader

Lagging indicators


  • Envelopes
    Defines reasonable/normal price range. In theory, price extending beyond the envelope is at an extreme and will snap back.
  • reference
  • Clutter: two lines on primary chart window
  • Settings: (default) Period 14, Shift 0, Smoothed SMA, Close, 0.10 Deviation
  • Observations:

    • price bar just prior to entry bar is: fully inside envelope / fully outside upper envelope / fully outside lower envelope / straddling upper envelope / straddling lower envelope
    • close of price bar just prior to entry bar: inside envelope / outside envelope
    • last touch or cross of an envelope: # bars ago
    • distance of bands (pips) at entry
    • distance of banks (pips) at target


  • Bill Williams' Fractals
    Attempts to detect minor tops and bottoms.
  • reference
  • Clutter: multiple tick arrows on primary chart window
  • Settings: (default)(not adjustable)
  • Would be easy to observe this on a higher timeframe (however may be timeframe irrelevant)
  • Interesting observation: the incidence of two arrows pointing the same direction is somewhat rare. If you enter the market at the open of the bar following the second arrow in the opposite direction, then exit at open of the bar immediately following the next opposite arrow... it seems to catch the big moves.
  • Observations:
    • last fractal was: up / down
    • # bars since last fractal
    • # fractal signals since last direction change


  • Exponential Moving Averages
    Attempt to detect change in trend. Does not work well in choppy markets.
  • Clutter: two lines on primary chart window (note: consider using MA Crossover Signals instead to minimize clutter)
  • Settings: EMA 13, 55
  • Observations:
    • EMA lineup:
      • EMAs already lined-up (in support of trade direction) prior to move
      • EMAs crossed to line-up just-in-time before move began; # bars between cross and entry bar
      • upon breakout, no EMAs are lined-up

    • price relative to EMA 13: touch / closed through / candle entirely ahead of MA / candle entirely behind MA
    • price relative to EMA 55: touch / closed through / candle entirely ahead of MA / candle entirely behind MA


  • Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI)
    Attempt to determine relative overbought/oversold condition based on the lookback period.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: (default) 14, Close
  • Observations:
    • current level: #
    • to reach current level, indicator has been trending: up / down / undetermined; for # bars


  • ZigZag
    Highlights minor high/low points of past trend reversals. Current indication is subject to change.
  • reference
  • Clutter: single line with multiple segments overlayed on top of price chart
  • Settings observation: increasing the depth reduces sensitivity to minor reversals
  • Settings: Depth 6
  • Observations:
    • last zigzag was: uptrend / downtrend
    • last zigzag occurred across # bars
    • where is current price relative to the last zigzag point? above / below / inside
    • previous zigzag tops (3 or more) are trending: up / down / undetermined
    • previous zigzag bottoms (3 or more) are trending: up / down / undetermined
    • # of previous zigzag tops trending same direction: none / #
    • # of previous zigzag bottoms trending same direction: none / #


  • Welles Wilder's Parabolic SAR
    Trails price movement based on acceleration and provides indication of impending reversals.
  • reference
  • Clutter: small dots on primary chart window typically away from candles
  • Settings: (default) StartPR 0.02, StepPR 0.02, EndPR 0.2
  • Observations:
    • SAR direction change occurred # bars ago





Leading indicators


  • Bill Williams' Accelerator Oscillator (AC)
    Indicates the current driving force by color, and supposed to change before price. Zeroline indicates where driving force is at balance with acceleration.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: (default) 5, 34, 5, SimpleMA, Close
  • Observations:
    • current color: green / red
    • current position: above zeroline / below zeroline
    • colors on currently forming mountain side: same / fluctuating / undetermined
    • mountain trend: upward / downward / undetermined
    • mountain trend continuation since cross over zeroline?
    • last extreme level was: same side zeroline / across zeroline
    • clearly defined mountain: yes / undetermined
    • current location on the mountain: before peak / after peak / undetermined
    • current total size of the mountain since zeroline
    • size of the mountain from zeroline to peak: # / undetermined
    • size of last mountain from zeroline to peak: # / undetermined
    • color on left side of mountain: same / fluctuating / undetermined
    • color on right side of mountain: same / fluctuating / undetermined
    • last mountain color on left side: green / red
    • last mountain color on right side: green / red



  • Welles Wilder's Average Directional Movement Index (ADX)
    Measures strength of trend momentum. Indicates if there is a trend, and which direction is in control.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: for 15min chart using 28, Close
  • Observations:
    • rising/falling lines crossed as move began

    • rising/falling lines are aligned in trade direction
    • rising line trend: up / down / undetermined
    • falling line trend: up / down / undetermined
    • ADX line trend: up / down / undetermined
    • ADX line clear trend reversal can be seen
    • current level of rising line: #
    • current level of falling line: #
    • current level of ADX line: #
    • current order is: ADX falling rising / ADX rising falling / falling ADX rising / falling rising ADX / rising falling ADX / rising ADX falling


  • Welles Wilder's Average True Range (ATR)
    Indicates relative volatility level over the lookback period.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: for 15min chart using 32, Close (based on past 8 hours)
  • Observations:
    • since session open, relative level is: extreme low / low / high / extreme high / undetermined
    • recent trend is: rising / falling / sideways / undetermined
    • # bars since last shift in indicator trend: 10+ / 5-10 / 1-5 / undetermined


  • Joseph Granville's On-Balance Volume (OBV)
    Relates volume to price change and attempts to detect smart money flow before price impact.
  • reference1 reference2 reference3
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: (default) Close (not adjustable)
  • Observations:

    • trend: rising / falling / sideways / undetermined
    • sudden change in trend: rising / falling / (n/a)


  • Pivot Points
    Levels of possible support and resistance for the upcoming day, based on previous day's High, Low and Close.
  • reference
  • Clutter: multiple horizontal lines on primary chart window
  • Settings: (default) (not really adjustable)
  • Interesting observation: initial directional price bias seems to be towards the nearest pivot level from the pivot point for that day (acts as a magnetic level). R1 and S1 are frequently NOT equidistant from PP.
  • Observations:
    • what pivot level is price closest to? pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3
    • (entry) this entry is a breakout through pivot level: (n/a) / pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3
    • (target) this target is just inside pivot level (pre-breakout): (n/a) / pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3
    • (target) this target is just beyond a pivot level (post-breakout): (n/a) / pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3
    • last pivot level crossed today, and direction: (n/a) / pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3 / upward / downward
    • second-to-last pivot level crossed today, and direction: (n/a) / pivot / R1 / R2 / R3 / S1 / S2 / S3 / upward / downward
    • so far today, price has touched # pivot levels
    • distance from pivot to first levels: pivot->R1 is closer / pivot->S1 is closer / about the same


  • Stochastic Oscillator
    Attempts to identify relative overbought/oversold condition based on the recent lookback period.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: %K20, %D6, Slowing 3, Apply to High/Low (check if MT supports High/Low or Close)
  • Observations:
    • fast line crossed in support of entry/exit just prior
    • fast line cross between entry and exit
    • multiple crosses between 20 and 80 prior to exit
    • approximate level of cross was: #


  • Bill Williams' Percent Range
    Attempts to identify overbought/oversold conditions. Anticipates impending reversals.
  • reference
  • Clutter: none, on subwindow
  • Settings: (default) 14, Close
  • Observations:
    • indicator level is approximately: #
    • indicator has touched extreme (0 or 100) and still above 20 or below 80