Thursday, September 4, 2008

Study agenda Thursday 9/4 five-hour timeblock

  • Ongoing indicator research
    • review observations from all indicators now that I've slept on them (revisions / additions)

    Whew -- that took longer than I expected. But I keep finding better ways to refine the survey questions. I've also axed two indicators that I feel are too subjective: Welles Wilder's Average True Range (ATR) and Joseph Granville's On-Balance Volume (OBV). I must have extreme objectivity when analyzing indicators so the computer can extrapolate accurate results. I would rather back-burner the entire indicator than introduce any wishy-washyness.

  • Revisions to survey
    • identify alternate timeframes I want to reference
      • identify a few indicators I would like to take readings from
      • add this data-collection to the survey

      This is going to take more study. I am thinking that I want to look one step above and one step below. But I need to think about how each indicator works, and decide if it would be useful in either or both situations. I would also prefer to limit the number of indicators viewed on alternate timeframes during this study.

    • identify date range I will run historical forwarding testing on
      Date range for this study will be the preceding one year. In my opinion more than this would be a futile effort since markets change over time. One year ensures that I catch the economic cycles. But even one year is quite long considering that I'm only looking at the 15min charts.

    • identify time-of-day blocks I will focus on

    • I've decided not to restrict this for my study. Instead, I will record the actual time on all entry/exit bars. In this way, the computer can do the heavy-lifting and tell me which time periods are best (if such a thing even exists for this strategy). In some ways you could argue that perhaps I should only look at time windows where I could be actively trading. However, I anticipate that I could be available to trade at almost any time if given proper advance warning (ie SMS alert).

    • write up step-by-step testing procedure (move to next weeks agenda)

  • Prep EURUSD data for FT testing (move to next weeks agenda)
  • Begin the study; take note of revisions needed (move to next weeks agenda)
  • Begin initial work on a new Mind Movie to specifically target this strategy development (move to next weeks agenda)
  • Watch Wall Street Warriors season 2 episode 2

  • Sidenote: I usually watch these with my wife. I sit there drooling through the whole show and she just rolls her eyes. :)

Other thoughts from today's study:
  • I might need to link a trade's entry with the multiple exits via an ID# unless I can figure out a good way to associate them from the database angle. The computer will need to know this relationship for proper analysis.
  • Test questions should be as neutral as possible so they can be applied to either entry or exit bars.
  • Some questions on the survey need formatting consistency.
  • Significant revisions were made to the indicators section again. The current version will always be found at the link in the Core documents section at the top-right of this blog.
  • The survey is an ongoing work-of-progress and the current revision can also be found in the Core documents section of this blog.